Announcement: CAsTOR Funded for 5 more years
Featured News
“A Quarter of Smokers Quit Under Menthol Bans, Study Finds” in the New York Times
In a study in 2021 that used a model to assess the effects of a menthol ban, David Levy, a Georgetown University oncology professor, found that it could lead to an overall reduction in smoking of about 15 percent. By 2060, the study projected, as many as 11 million years of life could be gained rather than lost to smoking-related deaths.
“These effects are delayed, but nevertheless important.”— CAsToR Principal Investigator David Levy, PhD
TAGS: #MentholBan
POSTED: Mar 4, 2024
Featured News
“A quarter of smokers quit within a year or two of menthol bans” on CNN
“It adds to the already very compelling evidence that banning menthol would result in fewer people smoking cigarettes and provide higher public health benefits, especially for populations that have pretty high rates of use, particularly Black Americans. There’s just more and more evidence every day that it would be a good idea to do a ban.” — CAsToR Principal Investigator Rafael Meza, PhD
TAGS: #MentholBan
POSTED: Feb 21, 2024
Featured News
“Most Americans Are Quitting Smoking—Except For Those Over 65” in Time magazine
Public health campaigns and programs outlining the dangers of smoking aren’t really aimed at older adults, says Rafael Meza, an integrative oncologist at the BC Cancer Research Institute in Vancouver and the lead author of a new study on adult smoking. “In the U.S., smoking really has a generational pattern,” he says. Meza’s new analysis, published Dec. 1 in JAMA Health Forum, shows that while people ages 40 through 64 smoke the most, Americans 65 and above are picking up the habit in a way nobody else is. While the prevalence of regular smokers dropped to 15.2% down from 21.2% in a little over a decade for that middle-aged group, older adults saw an increase from 8.7% to 9.4% in the same time frame.
POSTED: Dec 7, 2023
Featured Publication
“Trends in US Adult Smoking Prevalence, 2011 to 2022”
Is smoking still decreasing among US adults and do the trends vary by age, income, and race and ethnicity? In this cross-sectional study of 353,555 adults responding to the 2011 to 2022 National Health Interview Surveys, adults younger than 40 years had dramatic declines in smoking prevalence during the last decade, especially among those with higher incomes. In contrast, relatively slow declines were observed among adults aged 40 to 64 years, with no decrease in smoking among those 65 years or older. These findings suggest that the precipitous decline in smoking among younger adults should be maintained, but that additional efforts are required to further reduce smoking in older adults.
AUTHORS: Rafael Meza, PhD, Pianpian Cao, PhD, MPH, Jihyoun Jeon, PhD, MS, Kenneth E. Warner, PhD, David T. Levy, PhD JOURNAL: JAMA Health Forum.
POSTED: Fri Dec 01, 2023
Featured News
Center based at U-M receives $20M to research tobacco use
David Mendez, PhD, University of Michigan • Rafael Meza, PhD, British Columbia Cancer Research Institute • David Levy, PhD, Georgetown University Medical Center“Tobacco use, particularly cigarette smoking, is responsible for 480,000 premature deaths in the U.S. The extended funding will allow us to analyze how policies are likely to influence tobacco use habits among different populations and help to determine the best interventions to reduce, and maybe eliminate, the smoking toll,” said David Mendez, professor of health management and policy in SPH. “We are thrilled to continue CAsToR’s work assessing the impact of tobacco use and regulations, as well as continuing our efforts to train a new generation of tobacco regulatory scientists and modelers,” Meza said. “To date, our center has made important contributions to the development of U.S. tobacco regulations — such as the forthcoming cigarette menthol ban — and we look forward to continuing our work to further reduce tobacco-related morbidity and mortality.”
POSTED: Thu Nov 2, 2023
Featured Preprint
“Changing patterns of cigarette and ENDS transitions in the USA: a multistate transition analysis of adults in the PATH Study in 2017–2019 vs 2019–2021”
Understanding product transitions is key to determining the likely public health benefit or harm of ENDS. If ENDS promote cigarette cessation, reduced smoking, or divert those who would have otherwise smoked, there would be a benefit to public health.However, there remain concerns about youth initiation, particularly as many flavors are targeted to youth, as well as concerns that ENDS may interfere with long-term cigarette cessation because of continued or enhanced nicotine addiction.
AUTHORS: Andrew F Brouwer, Jihyoun Jeon, Evelyn Jimenez-Mendoza, Stephanie R Land, Theodore R Holford, Abigail S Friedman, Jamie Tam, Ritesh Mistry, David T Levy, Rafael Meza JOURNAL: medRxiv.
POSTED: Mon October 23, 2023
Featured Preprint
“E-cigarette Flavor Restrictions’ Effects on Tobacco Product Sales”
Over 375 US localities and 7 states have adopted permanent restrictions on sales of flavored electronic nicotine delivery systems (“ENDS”). These policies’ effects on combustible cigarette use (“smoking”), a more lethal habit, remain unclear. Matching new flavor policy data to retail sales data, we find a tradeoff of 15 additional cigarettes for every 1 less 0.7 mL ENDS pod sold due to ENDS flavor restrictions. Further, cigarette sales increase even among brands disproportionately used by underage youth. Thus, any public health benefits of reducing ENDS use via flavor restrictions may be offset by public health costs from increased cigarette sales.
AUTHORS: Abigail Friedman, Alex C. Liber, Alyssa Crippen, Michael Pesko JOURNAL: SSRN.
POSTED: Tue October 03, 2023
Featured Publication
...this work demonstrates the potential applications of machine learning methods in developing highly accurate classification models to predict smoking initiation using nationally representative survey data and systematically identify all potential risk factors of smoking behaviors in the PATH data. Besides reconfirming well-known risk factors in the literature, our findings discovered additional predictors of smoking initiation that have not been paid much attention to in previous studies.
AUTHORS: Thuy T T Le, PhD, Mona Issabakhsh, PhD, Yameng Li, MS, Luz María Sánchez-Romero, PhD, Jiale Tan, MS, Rafael Meza, PhD, David Levy, PhD, David Mendez, PhD JOURNAL: Nicotine & tobacco research.
POSTED: Tue May 02, 2023
Featured Publication
“Cigarettes, ENDS Use, and Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Incidence: A Prospective Longitudinal Study”
ENDS use did not significantly increase the risk of self-reported incident chronic obstructive pulmonary disease over a 5-year period once current smoking status and cigarette pack years were included. Cigarette pack years, by contrast, remained associated with a net increase in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease incidence risk. These findings highlight the importance of using prospective longitudinal data and adequately controlling for cigarette smoking history to assess the independent health effects of ENDS.
AUTHORS: Steven F. Cook PhD, Jana L. Hirschtick PhD, Nancy L. Fleischer PhD, Douglas A. Arenberg MD, Geoffrey D. Barnes MD, MSc, David T. Levy PhD, Luz Maria Sanchez-Romero PhD, Jihyoun Jeon PhD, Rafael Meza PhD JOURNAL: American Journal of Preventive Medicine.
POSTED: Tue Mar 07, 2023
Featured News
“Targeted menthol cigarette ads helped lead to high Black usage. Should they be banned?”
David Mendez, a lead author of the Michigan study and a health management and policy professor at the university, said menthol cigarettes reduce the irritation and harshness of smoking through their smooth, minty flavor profile. Because the cigarette user does not cough or feel the less healthy aspects of smoking, they are less inclined to quit, he said. Menthol also works with nicotine to enhance nicotine's addictive effects. Banning menthol will save thousands of lives, Mendez said. “This is the closest we have been,“ Mendez said of the proposed prohibition.
TAGS: #MentholBan
POSTED: Mon Aug 8, 2022
Featured Publication
With the US Food and Drug Administration recently proposing to implement a ban on menthol cigarettes, it is critical to estimate the potential public health effects of such a ban. With high rates of menthol cigarette use and important smoking-related health disparity implications, the impact of the ban on the non-Hispanic black (NHB) population merits strong consideration.
AUTHORS: Mona Issabakhsh, Rafael Meza, Yameng Li, Zhe Yuan, Luz Maria Sanchez-Romero, David T Levy JOURNAL: Tobacco Control
POSTED: Wed Jun 15, 2022
Featured News
The FDA has opened the public comment period for the agency’s proposed ban on menthol cigarettes. Epidemiology and global health professor Rafael Meza studies data modeling in disease prevention and cancer risk. David Mendez, who studies smoking cessation and tobacco control policies, is an associate professor of health management and policy. These University of Michigan researchers found that, in a 38-year period, African Americans suffered most of the harmful effects of menthol cigarettes. Now the researchers have developed a model to simulate the possible benefits of the menthol ban, based on studies of population trends in tobacco use. As experts on the behavioral and public health aspects of smoking, they explain the role of menthol in smoking-related illness and death.
TAGS: #MentholBan
POSTED: Wed May 18, 2022
Featured Trainee
CAsToR Junior Investigator and doctoral candidate Sarah Skolnick, MPH
CAsToR Junior Investigator and doctoral candidate Sarah Skolnick, MPH shares how computational modeling can be a powerful tool used to understand the complex factors surrounding racial disparities. She also discusses her journey into computational modeling and tobacco regulatory science.
POSTED: Tue Feb 13, 2024
Publications, PrePrints + Posters Updated Apr 12 2024 »
- Apr 12 2024: “Changing patterns of cigarette and ENDS transitions in the PATH study” (Oral Presentation - Slides) More about this oral presentation »
- Apr 12 2024: “Continuous associations of urinary tobacco exposure biomarker concentrations and transitions between cigarette and e-cigarette use in the Exhale cohort” (Poster)
- Apr 12 2024: “Cigarette smoking cessation among adult users of nontobacco-flavored ENDS: longitudinal analysis of PATH study” (Poster)
- Apr 12 2024: “Responses to real-world and hypothetical e-cigarette flavor bans among US adults who use flavored e-cigarettes.” (Poster)
- Apr 12 2024: “Smoking Prevalence and Lung Cancer Screening Eligibility from 2020-2060 for the Overall and the Non-Hispanic Black US Populations” (Poster)
Events + Multimedia Updated Apr 03 2024 »
- Apr 30 2024: “CAsToR Individual Development Plan” with Dr. Ella August View more information about this Event »
- VIDEO: “Developing the Approach Section for Tobacco Regulatory Science Proposals” with Dr. Stephanie Land, Dr. Adam Leventhal and Dr. Jamie Tam View on YouTube »
- May 30 2024: “CAsToR Webinar with Ben Apelberg and Mitch Zeller: A Conversation about the Use of Computational Models in Tobacco Regulation” with Ben Apelberg, PhD, MHS and Mitch Zeller, JD View more information about this Event »
- VIDEO: “ CAsToR junior investigator, Alyssa Crippen, PhD ” View on YouTube »
- VIDEO: “Should ChatGPT be your next co-author? Considerations for GenAI and academic authorship” with Dr. Ella August View on YouTube »
Opportunities Updated Feb 16 2024 »
- Feb 16 2024: “Request For Application for Scholarships: Summer Course on Tobacco Simulation Modeling” (Scholarships) View this Opportunity »
- Sep 27 2023: “Training opportunity in tobacco simulation modeling and American Indian and Alaska Native health” (Yale School of Public Health) View this Opportunity »
- Sep 09 2020: “Consideration for Presentation at a Tobacco Online Policy Seminar, TOPS” (Call for papers) View this Opportunity »
News + Announcements Updated Feb 26 2024 »
- Feb 26 2024: “In the news: “A Quarter of Smokers Quit Under Menthol Bans, Study Finds” in the New York Times, with comments from CAsToR Principal Investigator David Levy, PhD” View this News item »
- Feb 21 2024: “In the news: “A quarter of smokers quit within a year or two of menthol bans” on CNN, with comments from CAsToR Principal Investigator Rafael Meza, PhD” View this News item »
- Feb 12 2024: “CAsToR e-Announcements (February 2024)” View this News item »
- Dec 08 2023: “CAsToR e-Announcements (December 2023)” View this News item »
- Dec 07 2023: “In the news: “Most Americans Are Quitting Smoking—Except For Those Over 65” in Time Magazine, with comments from CAsToR Principal Investigator Rafael Meza, PhD” View this News item »